Change (Real Change)

We have had several very progressive events happen under our last two Democrat presidents. First Carter, who gave away the Panama Canal to Panama, then allowed a bunch of outlaw Shiites capture our diplomats and incarcerate them right up to the inauguration of President Reagan, whom they knew had the balls to take them out if they didn't release our people.

Shifting to President Clinton, most remember him for the affairs he had. What was much worse, were the bribes writ large that he took from the Chinese which resulted in two major events. One, was when he closed down the Long Beach Naval Station and leased it to a Chinese corporation that was solely owned by the Chinese Army/Navy. The second was when he stood still and allowed Panama to sub-lease the operation of the Panama Canal to yet another corporation owned by the Chinese Army/Navy. For those of you that are going to the knee jerk and say, "but it's their country," go back to your history books. We created Panama out of a part of what was Columbia. We built the canal and operated it for the benefit of all nations, at tremendous expense in both money and lives.

One can only wonder what damage another Democrat will do to our country, if elected. The electorate itself, you and I are to blame really, by not paying attention to the important issues. That Clinton was impeached for lying under oath was peanuts compared to the campaign contributions that poured into his coffers with a quid pro quo being control of the canal and a base on our own soil.Selling out our country is commonly called Treason.

As far as local political office is concerned, we do need balance between the two parties,a balance that we do not presently enjoy. When I lived over on the coast, in Washington State, I witnessed a solidly Democrat county government in both Pierce and King Counties. That corruption occurred is of record. The same happens anywhere that one party, whether the Democrats or Republicans hold absolute power, or as Lord Acton, echoed by Ronald Reagan said, "power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely."

Such would be the case with an extreme liberal in the White House and control of both houses of congress. Turning a 180 degree course the other way is no way to run our country. If anyone is curious as to some of my votes this time around, here are the following:

President, McCain
Senator, Risch
Congress, Minnick
Kootenai Cty Commissioners, Curry and Tondee
Timberlake Fire District, Debbie Schissler

Time Flies

Anyone who has lived for 70 or more years can remember much that the current crop takes for granted. When I was born in 1938, we were still flying bi-planes, Ford Tri-motors and the like. At ten years old, I was experiencing "Give 'en hell, Harry Truman." Harry was a guy I really admired, mostly for his forthrightness. He had a temper too, as has been described of John McCain.Sometimes getting "mad as hell," isn't a bad thing, as long as in the process you don't lose control.

Since I started flying in 1959, most planes haven't any propellers anymore and jets are being replaced with rockets. My first several aircraft were tail draggers.The cell phones most people have nowadays were a Buck Rogers thing. Sci-fi. When growing up, we didn't sit in front of the black and white TV except for special programs. We never missed the Milton Beryl hour. There were no electronic toys, new math, wi-fi. We entertained our selves outside for the most part, or at card games, such as pinochle. Unlike the current crop of people, I read books as my principle entertainment. I have so many books in my house that I don't remember how most of them came out, and as a result can enjoy re-reading many of them.

I thought I'd seen everything there was to see, until Barack Obama. Now without playing the race card, and isn't it disappointing to have to disclaim so that you can even discuss race? I never thought I'd ever see a black man run for president, especially with a Muslim name. Times have indeed changed, and in a hurry. More young people that haven't the anchor of maturity are flocking to this man's banner, as if he were the new messiah. The most severe change in politics happened with the advent of television. Now suddenly, instead of following voting records, or staring the candidate in the face, like news programing, politics has become a form of show business.Here we have a charismatic young man in his first term as a senator. An empty vessel with nothing but platitudes and generalities to offer. Whether he would make a good president is like throwing dice.

In this world we find our selves in, we have perhaps more challenges than even the forties with WW11 in progress. Back then, heavy industry bailed us out of the depression as well as World War 11. We no longer have heavy industry. Our economy in in the tank and for many reasons. Free trade that isn't free, and isn't trade, unless countries like China also buy in large quantity from us. We have one war and another occupation that we are fighting, with uneasy situations in many parts of the globe. We may have been safer when our only enemy was the Soviet Union.

While I won't vote straight ticket, I can't see Obama as president. Not because he's black or young or even because he has a Muslim name. No, I will not vote for him because notwithstanding the fact that McCain isn't charismatic and isn't a great speaker, he has dedicated his life to this country from birth. First in the Navy, then after reaching the grade of Captain, retiring and entering politics. He doesn't bow down to the Bush doctrine, whatever that is, nor does he fight with the left just because he is a Republican. He is a unifier and a man that can stand with members of both parties to find common ground solutions to horribly complex problems. He has the benefit of living a long life, gathering experience and knowledge from many places and people. We KNOW who John McCain is. I can't say the same about Obama. He is an unknown with questionable friends and from the Daley controlled Chicago area, where politicians are taught to campaign in graveyards. Hiring Kids to run the country should only be in a classroom mock election, not the real thing.

I recently posted a picture of a cat perched on top of a fish tank there not for the fish, but simply for a drink. Some of the other animals on the place were also interesting, as well as the story that will go with them in the December issue of the River Journal.

Pictured above are Maggie Mae, the Zebra and Bear,the Pomeranian,sharing a meal.

Other interesting animals in the area are three camels a couple of miles away, some Yaks, dwarf goats and some Llamas. Oh, and the occasional horse as well.

Just Unbelievable Stuff

Lately, I have been writing about what if stuff regarding our economy. While that may be of some value, there are other subjects beyond the economy and the Gawdawful length of the election cycle.

One such subject was in the course of chasing down a story, I ran across a family that has a Zebra, several horses and other assorted pets. O.K. that isn't much different that the camel lady, or the folks raising Llamas, Yaks and other notable non-residents.

Two rather understated pets actually got most of my attention. One a dog, the other, a cat. While these may be ho hum everyday pets to some, these were not. For instance, the Cocker Spaniel named Azalea. Azalea never strayed off on her own.She knew her yard and stuck to it. Then something weird happened. The neighbor lady next door had a stroke. Suddenly, Azelea started spending nights at the neighbor's home and even days, when her husband had to work. Sleeping on the victim's pillow every night, Azelea has not abandoned her patient. Still coming home for dinner and a visit,her charge still safe under her watch.

Then there is Daisy May. Daisy May is a Siamese Cat. for those that are familiar with cats, they know that Siamese are not quite cats and not quite human, but somewhere in between. Such is the case with this one. When she wants a drink, she climbs up onto the large fish tank in the dining room. Most at this point would shudder in horror. The cat is going to eat the exotic fish! Not so with this one. She passes up a perfectly clean water bowl to drink out of the fish tank, as pictured. Go figure. Incidentally, the story of the Zebra and other strange phenomenon will appear in the December 1st issue of River Journal Magazine.

Economic Meltdown

A reader recently criticized me for shouting "gloom & doom" from the rooftops. Perhaps he or she is right, perhaps not. I look at the situation this way. My readership varies but hangs around 60 to 70 visits per day. I am not going to, with that small audience create chaos by being negative. What I might do however, is convince someone out there that the head in the sand trick don't make it better. It just hides reality from you. My thirty years in Mortgage and consumer fiance gives me some background. The seventy years that I have lived gives me history and perspective.

This is unlike those, not all, certainly, but those that are young, say 40 and younger that haven't actually experienced bad times in their lifetime. This tends to sway people into thinking that because it didn't happen in my lifetime, then it won't. Well, Mt. St. Helens hadn't erupted in our lifetime either, but it still did. I grew up hearing my parents talk about the "Great Depression." It started only 99 years ago and lasted about ten years, with World War 11 and the rearming of our military and naval forces creating a resurgence in the manufacturing field.

There are several reasons why I think that if we do enter a depression, it will be much worse.First, we have exported most of our heavy industry. Big steel is no longer. Our auto industry is teetering on the brink. Confidence in our financial markets is at a historic low. Our dollar is not backed by anything anymore. When we switched from the gold and silver standard to a GNP based value system faith was the only thing left to back the buck. The worst part though, is that in 1929 through 1938, a large majority of our population either lived on farms, or had acreage that could and did support most of them. The pictures of hobo camps and bums asking for handouts were an overstatement since many if not most farms were paid off and were owned free & clear. Most of the unemployed were those that were previously employed in industry which had shut down. When my parents lost their horse in 1937, it was a tragedy, not just the loss of an old friend. That horse was a Percheron that pulled a plow and other farm implements that allowed them to survive the depression. They had to sell the farm when that happened. Now people use tractors. Unfortunately, tractors do not feed themselves, but require fuel.

Today, much has changed. People don't have the survival skills that Americans did 100 years ago. Most don't have land that they can raise livestock or a garden. Those that do haven't the skills necessary to preserve the harvest, nor enough food in storage to last long enough to create their own supply. I have lived on a subsistence farm. During WW11, we, along with most of our neighbors, had acreage, a family cow, hogs, chickens etc. We also raised our own food for the most part. Why? Because WW11 rationing was in effect, money was scarce and most importantly,my folks having lived through the great depression, knew how.

In writing these articles, I realize that it can be construed as alarmist. When a fire has started, it is sometimes useful for someone to sound the alarm. The "experts" that say everything is going to be alright have an ax to grind. They make their money in the market, or at least have peripheral relations to that bunch. It is in their best interests to try to gloss over the massive problems that we face and put a friendly happy face on things. That doesn't necessarily make it so though. I have been there, done that and have the t-shirt. I was there, in the mortgage business when everything went south in 1980. That lasted four years. I went out of business in my own mortgage company when the crash of 1987 occurred. If we continue to sink, people need to, even as a mental exercise, think about survival IF things end up in the toilet. If we recover without too much further pain, fine. I would be delighted to be found wrong. But if I'm not, perhaps I will be of some help if only to get a few people thinking about the abyss ahead.

Predictions

ap file photo, stolen from Huckleberries online

"We have nothing to fear, except fear itself." Spoken by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, about the great depression.

I've talked about my take on the economy. There is more to come. Many were cheered when the market jumped back up two days ago. That was bargain hunters buying back in at lower prices. Yesterday, as predicted, we went into free fall again on Wall Street. I believe it will get a whole lot worse before it gets better. There are simply too many things broke for a simple fix.

To study history, one must go back to 1929 to picture where we might go next. The "Great Depression," started in 1929 but didn't reach bottom until 1932. These collapses do not happen over night, with one mighty drop. It is incremental, but inevitable. Our national debt is primarily held by Japan and Great Britain, along with China. If these countries cut us loose, it would be disastrous.

Lets just review a few problems that we are facing. Individually, most are solvable in the long term. collectively, the put us into a great hole, without a ladder. Oil prices led the parade, as Gasoline topped $4.00 and diesel was even higher. Farmers operating large equipment were suddenly paying more than their crops were worth to plant, fertilize and harvest. Truckers and railroads paid more to haul them to market. Suddenly, a country where most of us had disposable income, was no more. Boat & RV manufacturers are shutting down. Hotels and motels without travelers are suffering. Without spelling this out, I think most of you can figure out the rest. It's like lining up dominoes then pushing one over. The rest will follow.

The banking debacle, for me, is the hardest to figure out. I was in that industry for 30 years. In that time, (I retired in 1997) lending standards were, of a necessity strict. If you had bad credit, you would have to rehabilitate yourself for at least three years, and longer if a bankruptcy was in your past. How the industry could justify, especially after 1980-83, the reckless abandonment of sound lending practices, is beyond me.

I haven't been able to confirm when, where and who, but as I understand it, many liberal senators and representatives insisted, a few years ago that everyone should have the opportunity to own their own home. They passed legislation to that effect and the gates were open. You see, there is no way to make more homes available without lowering lending standards. The term now used, is sub-prime, which is a misnomer with spin. The actual name should be substandard. The increase in demand created an overheated market where demand outran the supply. That caused prices on land and homes to soar, even when mills were shutting down due to low lumber prices.

Interest rates were held too low, too long. That created another reaction, that being a wide open boom market. When demand was used up, due both to most people already having bought, and prices skyrocketing out of reach, it was all over. Builders were, as they did in 1980, still subdividing, still slapping spec homes up in cookie cutter tracts resembling California in the past, full speed ahead. "Happy days are here to stay." They weren't and didn't. If Paul Volker were fed chairman again, he would have long ago raised interest rates as he did back in late 1979.

Next I will speculate on what may happen in the near term and compare it to what happened in 1929 and examine the differences between then and now.

Taryn Strikes Again

Unappreciated by the spokesman-Review, Taryn Hecker has found a new niche. She is the grand prize winner at the American Legion Post 149, Athol's annual chili cook-off. Celebrating along with her is her daughter, Goo. Other winners were, hottest chili: Chuck Richmond, second best chili was won by last year's winner, Debbie "Dump Truck" VanScyoc. Although some of the chili was extreme, the Timberlake fire Department wasn't called out. The bartender managed to quell the flames with timely drinks.

Chaos Reigns

By now many, if not most of you have figured out that our economy is in crisis. I would gloat, because I have been predicting this for over a year. I won't, because being right this time isn't pleasant.At this point, we are teetering on the edge of a depression, not recession. While I'm not a trained economist (retired Mortgage Banker)I still think that Paul Volker did the right thing when he viewed stagflation back in 1980. He immediately raised interest rates to the highest seen ever. The economy ground to a halt, but only for three years.

Back then we still were a country with manufacturing as our financial base. You don't build anything, no jobs are created. Now we have free trade. This is a philosophy that I frankly don't understand. It appears to be a road map to one world, or worldwide socialism, yet right leaning Republicans bought into it. Some gobbledygook about turning our industrial might into off shore labor because it's cheaper. The mantra of a service economy that uses the "what goes around comes around" premise, I didn't think was going to fly.

Why? Because the only way our economy can compete with child labor and adults making less that $5 per day, is to become equal with them. This requires them to rise up to our standards, or for us to Fall to theirs. At this point you may have a hint of where I'm going with this. We aren't just in an equal race with the rest of the world, we are in free fall.

The congress blames Bush for the deregulation of the finance industry, but conveniently ignores the liberal mantra of we want everyone regardless of means to be able to own a house. One of the strongest voices there, was Senator Dodd. He is as adamant now about the fault resting with the current administration as he was back when he forced through new regulations requiring the mortgage industry to make it possible for those that couldn't afford to buy a house to be enabled. Rep. Barney Frank was right there with him at the time. Could it be that these and others are talking out of both sides of their mouths? Were going to turn the governance of this nation over to them?

The only way that can happen is through lowering standards for loan approval.That happened. Now we are in a train wreck, economy wise. Other causes of the housing market collapsing are the continuous low interest rates that stayed too low, too long. This used up the demand, while the supply, feeling the end wasn't near, kept on keeping on. As in all boom markets, when the downturn happens, as it always does, spec builders are in the middle of expansion, not retraction. Thus is created an oversupply of homes with no buyers in sight. If we are to lynch, (figuratively speaking) the so called mortgage Moguls, The we need to also take out the senators that forced these liberal know nothing, pay nothing legislation. It would seem that talking out of both sides of one's mouth is endemic in Wahington, D.C.

So, we have several, not just one or two causes of our current dilemma. I will extrapolate further in my next post.

The Tragic End ... Almost

This afternoon we learned of massive layoffs, again, at the Spokesman-Review.
starting with the Editor -In-Chief, Steve Smith, and affecting some 60 plus editors, copywriters and reporters. We don't know yet which are gone, and I suspect some will be surprises. Int the seventeen months that I have enjoyed the relationship with the Spokesman-Review.

Obviously the paper will carry on, but under what format, or size is yet to be determined. Those of us that stagger under mounds of papers that somehow don't make it to the recyclers will have a problem solved. For those that get their news from the Internet, you lose. Only national and international news appears on the Internet, unless you are obsessed with what Hollywood star is diddling whom, but then that is what the National Enquirer is for.

This phenomenon of younger readers passing on newspapers is not only a disappointment, but a tragedy. An entire generation simply doesn't either like to read, or doesn't know how, or both. Most young people do not read. It's not even a part of their entertainment regime. Video games and other electronic delights have taken over from mainstream journalism.

When I was a child, (a long while back) we didn't have television until I was around 12 years old. It was black and white. There were not cable or satellite signals to be had. But that didn't matter, because we didn't squat in front of the tube as most kids do now. We played outdoors, which in the Seattle area required a great deal of weather tolerance. We climbed trees, slid off tar paper roofs with waxed paper as out sleds, and somehow didn't break any bones. We made tree houses, tunnels, planter gardens, watching with wonder as nature poked the shoots up through the earth.

One has to wonder in this electronic age, whether these kids that grew up sitting in front of cartoons will turn out to be productive adults, or whether they will become drones, incapable of original thought or actions. Perhaps a fast paced video game could help train fighter pilots, but there isn't currently a huge demand for that.

I wonder and I worry that the Spokesman-Review along with other major market newspapers will become dinosaurs, destined for the scrap heap. The other worry, is what is going to take it's place. You can't wrap fish in a television newscast, although there are probably many that would like to do that with my columns.

We may be watching the end of an era, along with the boost of a failing financial world. It would appear that some folks, maybe most will have to find a toughness that they never learned, in order to survive.

I am having problems with blogger .com re: comments. I will post them manually, as I get them until I get it fixed. The other side of the coin is I will also comment on the comments.


"I think your assumption that young people are not reading the news is faulty! We catch the local news and oh so much more on the web, DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

This comment shows what I meant, and ignores that I was referring to print, not the internet, which if I have to once again repeat myself, doesn't show local or regional news. Why people choose to take things out of context is beyond me. Oh well, onward and upward. Oh, and the overuse of exclamation points suggest a little immaturity. I don't write this blog for children ... That should have been noted.

Retaliation

It is a sad but real situation when you find and report an act that is or appears to be improper. That I reported on the somewhat irregular dealings between the Bayview Chamber of Commerce and the Bayview Community Center Foundation as wrong, and tried to in detail and through several interviews of persons that were present,I have been counter attacked.

Somehow, in the embarrassment of doing wrong, several members of the board and their supporters, have sent letters to the editor, vilifying my objectivity and my motives. One such letter will soon appear in the paper. In the quest for objective reporting, the Spokesman-Review prints letters to the editor. That,in and of itself speaks to the idea of fairness.

I have spoken on this blog, and again in print through my columns in the Spokesman-Review, about the miss-handling of the July Fireworks raffle. This is fact, not supposition. A further development, as previously chronicled in this blog, suggested an improper allocation of fireworks funds to another related organization, the Bayview Community Center Foundation. It appears, for the first time in public, that those funds have been returned to the Chamber. That was only learned from one of the angry letter to the editor.

I had hoped that the issue was settled, although there were thoughts of an investigation. Those thoughts were laid to rest when the Foundation board returned these funds to the Chamber. Unfortunately, some of the parties to this action chose to retaliate. That is alright, because that then gives those who disagree with the letter to the editor, which I understand will be published shortly, to voice their opinions, both pro and con.

At this point, I choose, having retired from the field of battle, to rest with the knowledge that I helped avert not one, but two misadventures,To cease, pending future developments, to address this issue. Reporters are not allowed the privilege of reply to those that express their opinions. That, however, does not apply to those that disagree with the letter of intimidation sent to the paper. For me, lacking cause for further action, I have no personal animosity with those that have vilified me through either the remarks on this blog, letters to the editors, or private e-mails, which I received en mass from some of the players that represent the board of directors of the Chamber of commerce.

Those that volunteer for public positions are always subject to review and criticism by the people that elect them, whether as governmental politicians, or community groups. It is time for openness discussion and truth in all dealings, else wise this organization will sink into oblivion, a thing I would truly hate to see. Perhaps it is time for all of us to look into our hearts to discover truth. Not ego trips, not slanted truths but an all working together kind of thing.

It isn't important that we all march in lock step, it's only important that we respect each other and openly communicate. If a board meeting of one or another organization is being held, and the public is invited, is is important that these organizations publish both the times, dates, and agendas of these meetings, so that all interested parties can attend. Setting up votes outside of the formal meetings is wrong, if indeed that happens. If some of you reject cooperation between other community organizations, I will oppose you. Cliques are even though not formal are an abysmal thing. It has been brought forth that nobody wants to serve, thence here we are, doing the best we can. I challenge that premise. I know of several stalwart community members that happen to belong to other organizations that would love to participate, if only the in crowd would make way.

The old saw,"we can hang together, or hang separately" is as true today as it was back when those words were spoken, during the debate to declare independence, in 1776. Backbiting, while not a real problem in large cities, becomes a horrendous problem in small towns and villages. When one moves into a small rural area from the city, they need to modify their standards to a different set of circumstances.Those that can't seldom stay very long.

Community Stuff

Don't forget to attend the Gary Eller concert and Jam Sunday, September 28 at 2:00 pm. If you are a musician that can play folk or bluegrass, come on down for the show and the jam following. Eller has traveled far and wide to capture songs about Idaho, specifically old ones from the 1920's and older.

I've met Gary, played a tune or two with him. He's the real deal. A retired Nuclear Scientist, he holds a PHD in chemistry,a banjo and a guitar. Gary has been playing bluegrass and Folk for a long time as a hobby/avocation. The Bayview Community council in conjunction with the Bayview Historical society is hosting the event at the Community center.

The Buttonhook is closing for the season on the 28th. With the real estate market bottoming out, and an escrow hold on closings at Vista Bay, cash flow has substantially been reduced. As a result of the action of the Developmental Analysis Committee, (they allegedly paid $75.00 to the county resulting in a stop on closings) ten local employees have been laid off and the Buttonhook has been closed prematurely. What is it they say? Unintended consequences? Perhaps it is time to reexamine the role of this committee. Is it to monitor developments? Or is it's goal to stop or severely delay any development. A parallel would perhaps be the folks that live in trees in Northern California, trying to stop any logging.

So, then, where does the line get drawn. If this is about extremism, it is doubtful that the community at large will support it. For the most part, as I have observed, and I include myself in this example, the shock of our lifestyle being turned upside down has caused an outbreak of negative response to ALL development, or at least most of it. It would appear to me that some of the currently planned developments will go forth, or at least when the real estate market recovers.

Reality, however, suggests that former employees of Waterford Park, (I'm one)might have a personal ax to grind.I have overcome that anger, but some haven't. Others are perhaps governed by the eviction of the trailer park. I to, mourned the loss of those inexpensive home sites. People that lived there were out friends and we miss them. Still,isn't it time to get realistic and start planning for the future Bayview, rather than the old one that unfortunately is gone. Maybe we need to examine whether our egos have taken over from out common sense.

I have lived here for thirteen years. The day I moved here, and it was before I retired from the mortgage lending business,I looked around and said repeatedly, this place is going to boom, and soon. Well it didn't and my forecast was premature. But the inevitable arrived in the investors that invaded. I guess my point here is that this is the reality, not what we wish, which is to go back to where we were. Newcomers have moved in and some immediately attempted to redesign the community. Such is the style of many that move out of a community that doesn't like them to one that they can have a fresh start in. Others move in, can't adjust and move on.

Many things have changed besides the developments. The huge blue back fishery is gone, probably forever. Trophy trout fishing is going to follow.The sudden influx of small mouth bass suggests a new future fishery, but the hundreds of small watercraft that plied the Kokanee fishery are gone and will not come back. This town could have died from that change. Perhaps only the development of a high end tourism market will save Bayview's economy. Perhaps it is time to start thinking instead of reacting to development. Our future is not entirely in our control. Try going back to your home town. Is it the same? Hell no it's not, and this place won't be either. For a time, we will have peace, because speculative building loans Will and have come to a halt. This condition, in my opinion will last for perhaps four or five years, maybe longer, depending on how far our economy falls.

Whether or not most of you realize it, we are headed pell mell into what could pass for a repeat of the great depression of 1929-1939. That was ten years of starvation, unemployment, foreclosures and a screeching halt to manufacturing. The Bayview economy has suffered from the wipe out of the trailer park, as well as the departure of the fishing fleet. The few surviving businesses are vital to our local economy and need to succeed for out little village to endure. I encourage all of you to drop in to the local restaurants, the mercantile and oh yah, I blew it on my recent column in the S/R when I neglected to mention Ralph's Internet Cafe. Ralph is still in business, going strong and will stay open all winter, along with Terry's and the captain's wheel. Along with informing tourists and newcomers, Ralph has morphed into the town greeter. Everyone seems to end up there for tacos or brownies, maybe a burger or an ice cream cone.

Just a moment to remember the depression, most of this country was rural back then. People could feed themselves from their own garden, farm animals and such. Now most live in a city, or at least a crowded suburb. Can you feed yourself from your property? I think not. This could get very interesting, and perhaps diminish the petty things that we worry about today.

More Chamber Stuff

Some remarks recently have suggested that I have been attacking Jim MacDonald. Not true. Jim MacDonald's integrity is beyond question. The combination of health issues that have weakened Jim, has given other activists within the chamber the latitude to create chaos. I really hate to personalize these things, but people do bad things and when they do, a light needs to be shined upon them so that the rest of the community will become aware of what is taking place.

Loyalty to one's fellow officers is commendable, but those that receive that loyalty are obligated to refrain from abusing that trust. A string of events starting last Summer and continuing have been troublesome: Criticism of those that solicit funds for the fireworks fund if in fact those funds come from a source that is disliked by the complaining officer; Jumping to conclusions as a newer member of the community as to raffle rules, without appropriate research, hiring an expensive attorney to interpret a rule that one phone call to Boise would have cured; miss-allocating funds entrusted to the chamber by the public; all of these things are egregious mistakes in judgment. Robbing Peter to pay Paul is not appropriate behavior.

When people run for office, whether a political office or a community organization, they take on a responsibility that requires thoughtful actions, not impulsive acts. That mistakes or worse are criticized is part of what you accept when running for that office. Perhaps the worst of these sins would be the betrayal of Jim MacDonald, an honest caring community leader whose helpers have let him down.

Jumping Through The Looking Glass

Activities of the Bayview Chamber of Commerce grow curiouser and curiouser. On the heels of the fiscal disaster over the July Fireworks Raffle, (legal fees still not publicly disclosed) the September meeting got even more bizarre. The developer group planning to establish a golf course community on the back side of Bernard Peak was invited to speak to neighbors concerns. It turns out that those that own land on Twete Road or Good Hope Road, feel the age old complaint, "we bought rural land and you want to change that!"

About 50 or 60 people showed up, primarily to address the development. County Commission President, Rick Curry and a sheriff deputy were present as well. During the meeting, the power went out and stayed out for the rest of the event. Between lanterns and the deputy's spot light shining through the window, the meeting went on. After about 30 minutes of discussion regarding the development, Chamber president, Jim MacDonald, claiming illness and that he still had a meeting to run, gave the folks 5 more minutes to conclude the discussion. Five minutes went by, and he gaveled the debate closed, and suggested they could continue out in the parking lot.

What happened next was surreal. With the deputy and Curry looking on, about 12 people in all were left in the room. Skip Wilcox made a motion that $960 of the proceeds from the fireworks raffle be donated to the community Center foundation. Treasurer, Kathy Ellis supported the motion, allegedly claiming she had a telephone meeting with Lynette Cravens of the State Lottery Commission. She went on to say, (paraphrased) that the chamber had to give that money away, at least 90% of the proceeds, or face a $10,000 fine. Over the objections of Ralph Jones and George Grandy, the motion was passed.

It is necessary to point out that Skip Wilcox, Kathy Ellis and Tom Ellis are Community Center Foundation Board members. They did not recuse themselves. This apparent conflict of interest bring up several points, some possibly illegal acts. First, representing the raffle as benefiting the fireworks fund which is held separate from the general fund, then giving the money away to another organization that the proponents are officers of, smacks at the very least, a conflict of interest, and possibly raffle fraud. Secondly, When, the next morning, Ralph Jones called Lynette Cravens at the lottery commission, she denied ever having such a conversation with anyone in the chamber about anything and promised to clarify that in a letter to the chamber. If this is true, that would constitute a deliberate fraudulent act. According to Jones, the chamber secretary, Claire Cosgrove admitted to receiving the letter from the state, but as of this date has refused to divulge the content or show the letter to him.

What motivated these officers to do these things is a mystery. We intend to find out what if anything was illegal, and pursue that course. This doesn't bode well for the future of the organization.

"Those That Don't Learn From History"

"Are Bound to repeat it." I don't remember whose famous quote that was, it is more widely ignored than any I know of.

"Following a ten year bull market, loose interest rates and borrowing standards, the stock market plunged amidst bank and investment house failures." 2008? Not even. That was 1929. If it sounds familiar, it is.

This condition is close to being a current event, rather than history. The things that brought Wall Street down back then was primarily a highly speculative market, in which investors borrowed to the hilt to purchase stock that was going Up ... Up... Up. When the market slipped and the banks called in margin accounts, those without means, defaulted on those loans by the thousands, causing over a period of three years, a cumulative failure of the entire economy.

Everyone has heard the term "1929 crash," but the real depth of the depression was 1932. It didn't all happen at once, and if it indeed happens again, it will also be a slow crumbling of our financial infrastructure. We didn't start recovering from the '29 crash until the industrialization leading up to World War 11.To date, in 2008, eleven banks have already failed. Washington Mutual, the country's largest savings & Loan, is teetering on the brink and will probably either fail in the next week or be bought out. All but two of the leading investment houses are either bankrupt or bought out by banks that may find themselves in the same boat.According to Taipan Publishing Group, there are currently 117 banks on the FDIC watch list. Already, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is strained from insuring deposits from those eleven banks with many more to come.

Many people are not aware that many savings plans, money market accounts, CD's 401k's and all stock and mutual fund accounts are uninsured. Most investors have never faced a total melt-down of this country's economy. I attribute some of this to the lack of productivity we have experienced since free trade was established as our policy. Your uninsured deposits have already been loaned out to people borrowing too much on too little collateral that are in foreclosure. When/If your bank shuts it's doors, your money is gone.

Many, if not most banks are shutting the loan spigot off, attempting to get heavy in cash, which is going to cause the auto industry to crash, as the over building of real estate already has crushed that industry. If oil comes back down to around $65 or $70 per barrel, that will help. The closing of our national forests to logging, even selectively, and the curtailing of mining and heavy industry can be laid at the feet of extreme environmentalists that don't believe or don't care, that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

People, we are feeling that reaction now. Prior to 1929 we had a very strong industrial base that when reactivated, produced the war materials that supported England in 1939. We do not have that base anymore. It's all offshore. If we were to try to ramp up our military in a war situation, without our allies that are producing much of our steel, aircraft parts and on & on, we can't even defend ourselves. We have sold our collective souls to save a buck and it's going to bite us on the ass.

The reccesion Word Has Been Spoken

I'm not going to quote from either campaign, but as long as the R word has been used, I will comment on that.

An amalgamation of several factors have come together to create what is definitely a recession.I have myself laughed about the two quarters thing. Thirty years in the finance and primarily mortgage financing have taught me that the feet on the street know a recession long before those in the ivory tower. By the time two quarters go by, (6 months) all these talking heads can say, is what has already happened.

I predicted about a year ago, a serious recession that might even dip into a depression. (check your grandparents for that definition)

Several factors are in play. One, the price of oil. Two, the drop in the dollar, three, long term interest rates stayed too low, too long. When that happens, the demand is used up, while production keeps on.

This creates an over abundance of supply, without the accompanying demand. spec building is in full gear, without any buyers in sight.The huge construction industry has been on a roll for over ten years. Many young workers have never experienced anything but growth.

Right now, we have a combination of high inflation, created by low taxes and high expenditures in the middle east. Also at fault, are artificially low interest rates, which encourage people to borrow. Back to the oil prices, the entire food chain has been affected, causing food prices to skyrocket. The tractors in the fields are costing three times as much to operate as three years ago. These costs are passed up the line for produce, meat, which is raised by hay, (prices way up) grain, (the same) all due to the skyrocketing costs of operating machinery.

The greed of the financial institutions, I can't explain. The reason, is they all learned the lesson of over extension back in the early eighties. Could it be that the losers back then are retired and no corporate memory exists? Forever good times only exist in "The Wizard of Oz," and other fairy tales. Everything that goes up, will indeed come down.

Look at Washington Mutual. Prior to 1980, they were a true mutual, which means the depositors are the owners. In, I believe, 1983, Washington Mutual became insolvent, but wait! They didn't have any stockholders. The executives of this large bank merely re-invented themselves, and became a stock corporation. Makes you wonder how they are going to escape this, the second time they went broke.Merrill-Lynch, Lehman and Bear-Stearns have all failed. We are closer to an entire meltdown than at any time since 1929.

Malcolm Speaks

I heard from Malcolm today. He has returned to Spring, a suburb of Houston about three miles north. He has electricity, which is better than most, has his internet connection, but as yet, no dial tone. We are waiting for a more complete description of what he is facing, but it appears his mobile home didn't get blown away.

O k, 2 pm September 15, the power finally came back on.
I went to San Antonio,stayed at my grandmothers rental house(which happened to be empty). I waited 24 hours to make the return. on the return at Flatonia,Texas we passed the convoys of Cat 1000 watt generators with their federal police escorts ... Hundreds of them. I got lucky with the weather holding out until I made it through southwest Houston where I saw only light damage from wind. Some hours later the same part of Interstate 10 would be under several inches, perhaps feet of water. Upon my arriving home I did notice the wind had some incredible force to remove the skirting off of every trailer in the complex. A few missing shingles and such.

While leaving Houston, I called my grandmother and she told me, my 49 y/o cousin who lives in Galveston , failed to make the bus for the evacuation. We can only hope for the best. As of yet no word on him.

To the northeast of where I live the damage is awesome. Trees plucked roots and all and thrown over 20 ft from the hole. Mangled steel pieces from industrial buildings and signs litter the storm drains.

I've only seen a few pics of Galveston and I am very concerned for my cousin. Now its time for my first shower and maybe more later.

More Malcom & Ike

In our continuing coverage of Malcom Lowry's survival attempts, I am again reprinting some of his e-mails to me, along with my warning to him. I will continue to cover this as long as he can still communicate with me.

"Mother Nature just played the "you gonna die card" in your poker game. Stick the most important stuff in your rig and get the hell out."(Herb)

(Malcolm) "Ya, the poker game is a bust. I'm headed for higher ground you'll know more when I know more."

"I've talked with the fire dept and of course Ive been watching the news and internet reports; we are being told to shelter at home but as I've mentioned previously, I live in a mobile home.The advice for mobile home dwellers is to go elsewhere...So I have altered my plan. I will spend a good part of tomorrow at the shop which is 45 feet above sea level,well out of reach of the storm surge, to drop off my tools and secure some other valuables. By late evening I plan to be in a brick home on the "clean" side of IKE. There is no doubt this storm is the most ominous threat to Houston in 25 years.

The places which will be affected by storm surge are all evacuated, special needs people are gone too. The highways have NOT opened to contra flow. the mood is a calm. Anxiousness is a better description than impending doom. for those of us still here, we've all accepted the fact we cannot totally evade this monster , we will be hit... HARD. Hurricane cat2 wind for more than 10 hours, heavy rain, and possible tornadoes. ya....there is fear, but I have not seen one person panic or any of the emotions other than concern coupled with swift action by the local governments and citizens alike."

UPDATE: 1:11 pm 9/12. Alright I've had enough already....I'm headed south to San Antonio. I'll give you a call after I'm out of this mess.

Ike's Fury

This is another of several posts which my former neighbor, Malcolm Lowry is sending daily reports on the arrival of Hurricane Ike. When the storm hits, he will hopefully update repeatedly while he still has power.

24 hours sure made a difference in the medias coverage of IKE. The damaging winds now span a distance of over 200 miles from the eye. It seems as if Ike is building up strength for the eventual inland campaign aimed some where in SE Texas. Stern warnings and mandatory evacuation for the gulf coast counties,and wind advisories all the way north of Conroe. We here in spring expect power outages from winds reaching 60+ mph with gusts up to 100 mph. this is not good for the thousands of people in mobile homes....that’s me!

With the evacuees from the coastal counties coming inland, it will be difficult for driving just due to local traffic unable to travel south because of the contraflow of the interstate. I myself don’t wish to be looted so I will be riding this thing out. However I do have a backup plan. IF by tomorrow evening I don’t feel comfortable here in the 40+mph winds starting @5-6pm, I will go to my shop where at least some steel and concrete were used to build it.

The local news is having their turn in the spotlight every news cast is like an audition for GMA or TODAY show. Reality tv at its very best. Ha! At the grocery store people are stocking up on the standard emergency supplies: batteries, water and beer. The highways are still in their normal configuration with moderate traffic. everyone I've spoken with is calm and not overly concerned with being forced to flee.

OK, well I think I might give my poker buddies a call and see maybe I can get a game going for tomorrow night. if the storm gets bad enough maybe I can do as good as I did during Katrina! In fact I think I made $80 IN the 8 or 12 hrs of Katrina. this storm is expected to last much longer; I hope this helps my game!

Addendum: I have e-mailed Malcolm urging him to bail out. He lives in a mobile home with a shop out back that would be one story. Houston is now predicted to be the center of the storm with 90 MPH winds and a 20 foot storm surge. with Galveston Bay leading almost all the way into Houston, it will probably be fatal for him to stay.

Trouble in Texas

Texas in bracing for what could turn into a major disaster. Determined to react better and faster than in the past, local counties are taking independent action. Matagora County, roughly half way between Houston and Corpus Christi has ordered a mandatory evacuation. Other area have done so with infirm patients. Obviously, the memory of patients in nursing homes perishing because nobody came for them is haunting, and perhaps always will haunt those in charge of these areas.

Our on the spot reporter, Malcolm Lowry, had this to say. "It's hard to believe that were in for a major storm when you look at the sky. It's a beautiful Morning with a clear sky and 92 degree temps predicted for the day."

A rather disturbing account was passed on by Malcolm, quoting a New Orleans police officer. We have no way of verifying this, but Malcolm is normally dependable. We will leave the name of this officer out, so as to protect her from retribution in the department, and also to protect against an inaccurate quote.

"Yes, a lot of people are frustrated. Everyone I spoke with decide that if, "IKE were to greet our shores, they were not leaving." citing high gas prices, being herded around like cattle without the comfort of ones own surroundings, packed like sardines in evacuation centers is not a pleasant experience. Of course, being killed, one presumes, isn't either."

She went on to suggest that many "bad seeds" are in the majority of evacuees, leading to rampant crime after evacuation. Apparently her position is that like the old "visiting firemen" of old, these people, not of the community they land in tend more toward crime than in their own neighborhoods. She went on to say. "Allegedly, I wish the media wouldn't interview the "bad seeds" ... The ones that feel the government owes them something. The government lined up buses, (free) put them on Amtrak, (free)and carried their lazy asses out of town and put them up in shelters. They still found something to complain about." (We believe she is talking about Katrina in this example)

One of the major problems with the evacuation is illegal workers that are afraid to report to evacuation centers for fear they will be segregated and hauled off for deportation. Apparently, the Customs and Immigration authorities have, in the past guaranteed a cessation of enforcement during mandatory evacuations, yet in another case, rounded up several for deportation. Without editorializing about this, it appears that major loss of life may occur if this monster storm hits some of the more agricultural areas, that team with illegals. That they shouldn't have been there in the first place, pales with the consequences that could occur.

Malcolm went on to remark about the fact that Houston seems to always be the point where evacuees are cared for. It sounds like some, if not many locals are a bit tired of being a lifeguard station for others.Malcolm's last remarks were, "Ya, looks like it could be dampish over the week-end. lol. I'll be riding this one out like I did Katrina. Actually, by the time Katrina made a serious threat, it was too late to run.The interstates were clogged, people ran out of gas or overheated, and it was a disaster.Mu parking lot was flooded, but I passed time playing poker." (he didn't say whether he won or not)

Apparently many of the State, Federal and local authorities are geared up to cure the problems that occurred with Katrina. Gas tankers will patrol the freeways, where evacuees run out of gas. All traffic lanes will funnel to the north and not buses will be left to drown in the lower areas, as happened with Katrina, as the bus drivers abandon their jobs and ran with their families. All in all, Katrina did not bring the best out in anyone. We can only hope that an important lesson has been learned. We will continue to relay reports from Malcolm,as long as he has the ability to send them.

Update from Malcolm:

"Parts of Brazoria County are evacuating today. They were voluntary now they have decided to make it manditory for the Surfside areas. Schools closed for the rest of the week. and fuel trucks are being called in. they are holding emergency meetings for city council in Galveston to transfer all council jurisdiction and power to the mayor. Trash services are being canceled.

where I'm at we are looking at the nasty side of the storm plus a cold front heading south we may have some flooding in the lower elevations." (Apparently, the feeling is that IKE will take care of trash distribution)